At present, the Chinese SBS market is still in a stalemate and consolidation stage, with a long-short game of cost, supply and demand. May is about to end, and there is still no clear news guidance for SBS.

        In the short term:

First, the butadiene market fluctuates violently, and the guidance is unclear: the spot butadiene market fell rapidly in mid-to-early May, reaching a relative low in the middle of the month, a 5%-6% drop from the beginning of the month. Then, under the influence of some foreign news, the butadiene market began to rebound violently. As of May 22, rebounding by about 5%. The price of butadiene fluctuated violently, and the future trend needs to be continuously monitored. At present, the cost is still high.

Second, the supply continues to be low: In mid-May, the Dushanzi unit was fully shut down for maintenance, and Huizhou Li Changrong is expected to shut down in the short term in the near future. Most other private and joint venture companies are still in a state of suspension, and the SBS operating load is still less than 40%. The market spot continues to be consumed, and imports have also decreased. The supply side continues to support.

Third, the demand is released slowly: the road reform start-up in May is still in a slow increase stage, TPR shoe material orders are gradually reduced, and the start-up has declined. At present, most terminals maintain rigid demand purchases, and the demand side is difficult to have a significant support effect.

Therefore, before the end of May, under the influence of cost and supply, SBS prices will remain strong. Different brands in the market have different sources of supply. With the differentiation of terminal purchasing volumes, the price gap between brands will gradually widen, and the market will be mainly in a wide range of fluctuations. In terms of exports, as SBS production in May is still at a low level, it is expected that the export volume in May may decrease compared with April, but it may still be higher than the same period last year. Increasing export volume is an effective way to ease competitive pressure.

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